Tablet shipments to surpass PCs before year's end

PC shipments may finally play second fiddle to those of tablets before the year is over, at least according to one analyst.

In one scenario outlined today by Sameer Singh, head analyst at technology incubator BitChemy Ventures, PC shipments will fall to between 70 million and 75 million in the fourth quarter, while tablet shipments would rise to almost 80 million. If so, that would be the first quarter in which tablet shipments outshine those of PCs.

In a second scenario, the crossover could happen even sooner. PC shipments could decline to around 65 million in the third quarter, while tablet shipments surpass 75 million.

Which scenario comes true, assuming either one does, depends on several factors, including the rate at which tablets are substituted for PCs. Initially, Singh believed that tablet shipments wouldn't overtake those of PCs until the first quarter of 2014. But the rate at which tablets were substituted for PCs last quarter was higher than he had anticipated.